Ten Commandments for Inspiring Super-Forecasters

It’s easy to get lost trying to figure out what’s coming next. I listened to an interesting TED Podcast about risk and forecasting and then visited Phillip Telock’s Ten Commandments. I encourage you to do the same https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/1390/research

Here’s my summary of the commandments:

  1. Triage – ask the critical questions at the right time.
  2. Break the problem down into manageable pieces.
  3. Balance the inside and outside views.
  4. Balance underacting and over reacting.
  5. Look for the clashing casual forces affecting each problem.
  6. Try to distinguish the many degrees of doubt as a problem permits.
  7. Strike the balance between under and over confidence and prudence and decisiveness.
  8. Look for the errors behind the mistakes but know of rear-view mirror hindsight bias.
  9. Bring out the best in others and allow them to bring out the best in you.
  10. Master the error – riding a bicycle. Learning requires doing and feedback.

There is wisdom in each one of these suggestions that applies to everything from searching for opportunities to managing risk. It’s a great formula for tackling many problems.

Side note: If you’re interested in a free PDF copy of the book I wrote Stop Making Mitsakes, please email to don@donphin.com.