It’s easy to get lost trying to figure out what’s coming next. I listened to an interesting TED Podcast about risk and forecasting and then visited Phillip Telock’s Ten Commandments. I encourage you to do the same https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/1390/research
Here’s my summary of the commandments:
- Triage – ask the critical questions at the right time.
- Break the problem down into manageable pieces.
- Balance the inside and outside views.
- Balance underacting and over reacting.
- Look for the clashing casual forces affecting each problem.
- Try to distinguish the many degrees of doubt as a problem permits.
- Strike the balance between under and over confidence and prudence and decisiveness.
- Look for the errors behind the mistakes but know of rear-view mirror hindsight bias.
- Bring out the best in others and allow them to bring out the best in you.
- Master the error – riding a bicycle. Learning requires doing and feedback.
There is wisdom in each one of these suggestions that applies to everything from searching for opportunities to managing risk. It’s a great formula for tackling many problems.
Side note: If you’re interested in a free PDF copy of the book I wrote Stop Making Mitsakes, please email to email@example.com.